Fall 2009 pre-season predictions: Tuesday

Monday was exciting, but there’s even more fun to be had on Tuesday’s this fall. The big winner is clearly NCIS. Last season they were in this same spot, but had to stare down Dr. House. It should be smooth sailing for the team in 09/10. But will those smooth waters carry over to the new NCIS on the block? The bigger battles brewing involve a pair of reality shows from 8-10, and two new dramas in the 10:00 hour. Who would you pick to win in The Biggest Loser vs So You Think You Can Dance and The Good Wife vs The Forgotten?

Starting at 8, it’s good to be Gibbs! Seriously. NCIS is coming off of what was a very strong season, and nobody is really firing any heavy guns. Jethro and the gang were up against House last fall, so they should be just fine, picking up right where they left off last season as the most watched show at 8. That’s most watched, but not the biggest demo number. For that we turn to the brewing reality battle between The Biggest Loser and So You Think You Can Dance. It’s an interesting match-up. We have a lot of history for The Biggest Loser, but this is SYTYCD‘s first foray into the deep end of the pool.

I have to say, I would really like to see SYTYCD take this one, for no other reason than I think it’s the best reality/competition show on TV. Unfortunately, it’s not quite that easy. This one really depends on two things. First, which Biggest Loser we see on Tuesday. The Biggest Loser from the fall, that was more in the 8m/3.1 area, or the Biggest Loser from the spring, that jumped up closer to 10m/3.9. And second, how will So You Think You Can Dance translate to the fall? The summer numbers are good enough to put the show in the running. The question is whether or not the show can actually grow with the increased viewership the fall brings. My prediction? The Biggest Loser will have a stronger fall than it did last season, and SYTYCD won’t grow enough to keep up. Biggest Loser takes the demo, but SYTYCD does well enough to be considered a success as it holds the spot for Idol.

Shark Tank and 90210 will round out the hour, and in that order. The recent growth for Shark Tank‘s summer run offers hope that this isn’t going to be another Opportunity Knocks. It’s not going to be a breakout hit, and should resign itself to 4th place, but I think it will do well enough to hang around. And 90210? What do you say? It’s not nearly the hit that The CW would like it to be, which makes the addition of the Melrose reboot all the more curious. If it didn’t catch on last season, I wouldn’t bet on anything changing here. Best case scenario is treading water at the levels of season one.

The 9:00 hour offers a real dilemma in both ratings categories. The results show for Dancing With The Stars is traditionally off a bit from performance night, which leaves the door open for the new NCIS: Los Angeles to take the top spot with viewers. CBS at 9 is a curious choice for me. I don’t get the idea behind moving The Mentalist to Thursday after CSI. It’s not like The Mentalist needs any help, and why change what was such a strong pairing? I also have to wonder if this isn’t an example of too much NCIS all at once.

It seems to me that the lesson has already been learned, with the CSI‘s spread throughout the week. I would actually prefer NCIS: LA Thursday at 10. Ultimately though, I think it will work for the network either way, and NCIS: LA will play to that CBS crowd that eats up all of their crimetime hits. That will give them the most viewed title in the hour. The demo will come down to The Biggest Loser and Dancing With The Stars. So You Think You Can Dance will fall to fourth in viewers at 9, but remain strong enough to be considered a success. It’s one of the rare occasions with four shows all finding their numbers. Melrose Place is a question mark. I think curiosity will work to its benefit initially, but as we move through the season I look for it to fall just short of 90210‘s numbers.

Things get very interesting at 10:00. Leno, of course, remains a mystery, but I think this will be his first opportunity to slide up to a solid second place. The Forgotten and The Good Wife both have plenty of arguments to be made against them. To start, there is still the Tuesday @ 10 CBS curse. Nothing has really stuck there since Judging Amy. The Good Wife sounds like it could be the one, depending on what connection you make. Does Alicia Florrick (Marguilies) sound more like Amy Gray, or Elizabeth Canterbury? Meanwhile, The Forgotten might be coming a little too quickly on the heels of My Own Worst Enemy. People couldn’t be bothered to watch Christian Slater last season. Is the idea of The Forgotten enough to change those minds? I don’t think so.

And really, it’s the idea of The Forgotten that I think decides the battle. It’s a hard sell. There are already so many procedurals on the schedule that adding a new one, without the benefit of a legacy like CSI, NCIS, and Law & Order have enjoyed, is hard. Not impossible, but hard. For every Mentalist, there are plenty of Southlands, Unusuals, K-Villes, Standoffs, etc. I expect both shows to get a good sampling at the start, due to having 12 to 15 million viewers dropped on their doorsteps. As we move along though, I’m looking for The Good Wife to separate itself and win the hour. Viewers are ready to have Julianna Margulies back on their TVs. And as they tire of the formula of The Forgotten, it will fall to third.

Clacked by Brett Love
on Sep 01, 2009 @ 14:00 EST5EDT